Friday, May 17, 2013

Preakness Pick 4

Had another modest score at Arlington last weekend in the late P4. The early one fizzled out early.

Preakness Day is the only day of the year I even look at Pimlico so I am not going to get crazy here and play a huge ticket.

Race 9 - Gallorette Handicap Grade 3

Samitar, Old Tune, and Hard Not to Like exit the Grade 1 Jenny Wiley last month with Samitar being the only one of the 3 that showed anything that day. That is why she is the 5/2 ML fav. I'll use her but I am not in love with her at all. Even though they didn't show much that day I'm also including the other two based on their back form.

The wildcard factor here is Silver Screamer. As of this writing there is still no jockey listed for some reason. I'm going to add her because of her trainer stats, she has won 2x at the distance, runs good fresh and will be a decent price.

Selections: 1 4 5 9

Race 10 - Maryland Sprint Handicap Grade 3

I really like Hardened Wildcat in this spot.  The race should set up nicely for him but I'm going to use a couple others in case he doesn't fire. Candyman E is one of those, should get a good trip drawn outside. Same with Laurie's Rocket who I admit is more of a play because who is riding her. Joel Rosario is red hot and this colt does have talent.

I'll let the ML fav beat me. I don't get 5/2 on Sage Valley. Same trainer as the aforementioned Silver Screamer but this is a totally different scenario. This horse has never faced other horses of this caliber, is coming off a 5 month layoff, and gets the 10 hole in a 10 horse field. Maybe there's something that I don't know and he'll run off like Ruffian but not with my money.

Selections: 4 7 8

Race 11 - Dixie Stakes Grade 2

I know a lot of people will be singling one of Shug's horses in this sequence but doubt many of them will be doing it here. This race is a great betting race. There's 3 horses I would auto-toss (6 8 11) the rest would not shock me if they won.

I just think Shug has Imagining primed and ready for a huge effort and the price is right. I don't get Optimizer, ok he ran 2nd to Wise Dan but somebody had to right? Swift Warrior seems ok but nothing special. I'll take my chances and single here.

Selection: 4

Race 12 - Preakness Stakes Grade 1

I said I wasn't going to single Orb but I am def going to use him and as a fan I'm rooting for him through and through. As a bettor I want a 'what if' in case he doesn't fire. That 'what if' is Departing.

I don't want any of the Derby horses. Slop, fast pace, whatever else happened in the Derby doesn't matter to me. Orb is better than they are period and nothing has happened in the last two weeks to change that.

Governor Charlie has potential but with the other speed in the race, pass. Departing is the one that I think will be running with Orb late. He probably isn't good enough but we don't really know how good he is. We'll find out tomorrow.

Selections: 1 4

Pick 4 ticket: 1 4 5 9 / 4 7 8 / 4 / 1 4

Playing this one for $1 = $24 total.

Saturday, May 11, 2013

Arlington Park - May 11th - Early & Late P4

Finally posted a winning ticket last week, it wasn't a huge score but was enough to show an overall profit on here to date. At the end of the year I'll tally up my total ROI.

I don't have time to have a full write up for today so I'm going to just post my plays. I wouldn't normally do this but 1) first time going to Arlington this year and 2) tomorrow is my Bday so hopefully the racing gods will be on my side.

These are after scratches which knocked both plays down, more so the late P4. Both are the $0.50 variety.

Race 2 - 5 8 / 2 5 7 / 1 2 4 / 1 3 4 = $27

Race 8 - 1 2 3 7 / 4 5 8 9 12 / 4 5 / 6 10 = $40

Next week I'll have something for the Preakness.

Friday, May 3, 2013

KY Derby Day

It does not look like Mother Nature is going to play nice this year which is a shame. I'm hoping worst case the turf and main track are listed as good. Yielding and sloppy and this ticket won't get punched.

Race 8

Distaff Turf Mile for fillies and mares 4 years old and up.

Marketing Mix is the favorite and on numbers she should be as hers tower over the field. The problem with Marketing Mix is she hasn't raced since the Breeders Cup. I saw this interesting stat on Twitter posted by Nick Tammaro () "Food for thought when handicapping Distaff Turf Mile. Tom Proctor just 7% with a $0.49 ROI on turf with 180+ day layoff returnees." Does that mean I'm going to toss her? Nope. But I am not going to single her either.

I really want to use Daisy Devine especially after meeting her in person on the Keeneland backside last month. I just think the filly to her direct outside, Frontside, is going to be a major thorn in her side. If for some reason she would scratch I would add Daisy.

The two that I am using along with Marketing Mix are Hungry Island and Stephanie's Kitten. Part of me wants to add Stopshoppingmaria as she is sort of a wildcard factor but I don't think she is good enough here, super trainer or not. My best guess is Repole wanted another horse running on Derby Day.

Selections: 5 6 8 (3 if 4 scratches)

Race 9 

Churchill Downs Stakes for four year olds and up.

Trinninberg is the 8/5 fav and in my opinion (and a lot of others that I've seen) is a complete toss. Off since the Breeders Cup sprint he shipped to Dubai in the end of March and ran a complete clunker and now lands here. That is a lot to ask and I don't think he has it in him. Pass.

Delaunay is a head scratcher to me. Listed as the 2nd choice at 2/1 he draws outside Trinninberg and will no doubt be forwardly placed with him. He is 3/3 at Churchill, 8/10 in the exacta at the distance, and has won 5 straight at the Fairgrounds. All of that is very nice but I am not in love here and it is becasue of the class jump. He's facing much tougher here than the cupcakes he's been beating up on in the Big Easy. He's also from what I can see in my Brisnet PP's never won a Graded Stakes before. I want to toss him too but he's in too good form to do that.

I'm using 3 others with him:
Hierro - price is right on this one, is 2/2 at Churchill and gets the aforementioned super trainer tacking him up.
Unbridled's Note - another one 2/2 at Churchill and is in great form.
Politicallycorrect - this one hasn't won at Churchill but Wesley Ward trained, Ramsey owned, Rosario up at 15/1 on the morning line. Yes please. Rosario with Ward are winning 42% of their last 26 races together, yes please. This gelding has talent too, having won over 400k in his career and Ward has had 4 months to get him ready for this.

Selections: 2 5 7 9

Race 10

Turf Classic at 1 1/8 for four years old and up.

I'm  not wasting a lot of words here. You have the two best turf horses we have to offer squaring off against each other. I looked and tried to make a case for at least one other horse in here and can't. The handicapper in me wants to use somebody else because anyone but Wise Dan or Point of Entry win and you are definitely going to the IRS window to cash, regardless of the other legs. No case could be made though so I'm using the 2 free squares and hoping the race lives up to the hype. Supposedly Point of Entry doesn't like the wet going so a yielding turf course would be to Wise Dan's favor. As a fan I like Wise Dan a lot more so I hope he romps.

Selections: 8 9

Race 11

Kentucky Derby.

I'm also not going to say a lot here because nothing I say will be anything you haven't already read. I really like two horses to win: Goldencents and Orb and originally I was going to only use those two. In the end I decided to use two others: Revolutionary and Itsmyluckyday. I never got the hype on Normandy Invasion and while I think Verrazano is a nice colt, I don't think this is his race.

Selections: 3 8 12 16

Pick 4 ticket: 5 6 8 / 2 5 7 9 / 8 9 / 3 8 12 16 = $48 for $0.50