Friday, May 17, 2013

Preakness Pick 4

Had another modest score at Arlington last weekend in the late P4. The early one fizzled out early.

Preakness Day is the only day of the year I even look at Pimlico so I am not going to get crazy here and play a huge ticket.

Race 9 - Gallorette Handicap Grade 3

Samitar, Old Tune, and Hard Not to Like exit the Grade 1 Jenny Wiley last month with Samitar being the only one of the 3 that showed anything that day. That is why she is the 5/2 ML fav. I'll use her but I am not in love with her at all. Even though they didn't show much that day I'm also including the other two based on their back form.

The wildcard factor here is Silver Screamer. As of this writing there is still no jockey listed for some reason. I'm going to add her because of her trainer stats, she has won 2x at the distance, runs good fresh and will be a decent price.

Selections: 1 4 5 9

Race 10 - Maryland Sprint Handicap Grade 3

I really like Hardened Wildcat in this spot.  The race should set up nicely for him but I'm going to use a couple others in case he doesn't fire. Candyman E is one of those, should get a good trip drawn outside. Same with Laurie's Rocket who I admit is more of a play because who is riding her. Joel Rosario is red hot and this colt does have talent.

I'll let the ML fav beat me. I don't get 5/2 on Sage Valley. Same trainer as the aforementioned Silver Screamer but this is a totally different scenario. This horse has never faced other horses of this caliber, is coming off a 5 month layoff, and gets the 10 hole in a 10 horse field. Maybe there's something that I don't know and he'll run off like Ruffian but not with my money.

Selections: 4 7 8

Race 11 - Dixie Stakes Grade 2

I know a lot of people will be singling one of Shug's horses in this sequence but doubt many of them will be doing it here. This race is a great betting race. There's 3 horses I would auto-toss (6 8 11) the rest would not shock me if they won.

I just think Shug has Imagining primed and ready for a huge effort and the price is right. I don't get Optimizer, ok he ran 2nd to Wise Dan but somebody had to right? Swift Warrior seems ok but nothing special. I'll take my chances and single here.

Selection: 4

Race 12 - Preakness Stakes Grade 1

I said I wasn't going to single Orb but I am def going to use him and as a fan I'm rooting for him through and through. As a bettor I want a 'what if' in case he doesn't fire. That 'what if' is Departing.

I don't want any of the Derby horses. Slop, fast pace, whatever else happened in the Derby doesn't matter to me. Orb is better than they are period and nothing has happened in the last two weeks to change that.

Governor Charlie has potential but with the other speed in the race, pass. Departing is the one that I think will be running with Orb late. He probably isn't good enough but we don't really know how good he is. We'll find out tomorrow.

Selections: 1 4

Pick 4 ticket: 1 4 5 9 / 4 7 8 / 4 / 1 4

Playing this one for $1 = $24 total.

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