Thursday, March 28, 2013

3/29 - Gulfstream Park Pick 3

I'm giving the P4's a break this week and focusing on a P3 early in the card at Gulfstream.

Race 3

Three years old and up maiden claimers (50k) going 6 furlongs. Let's look at the morning line fav first:

Sense of Peace

Dropping to the claiming ranks off a nice last race in NY. Obviously if he runs back to that race he will be tough. Notice the trainer also owns him so IMO he's asking somebody to take him from him, why? The 4 posted works don't look like much. Kimmel is only winning at 6% on the meet. 10% on these kind of layoffs and a measly 9% from maiden to maiden claiming. Two words for you: NO THANKS. I'll let this horse beat me all day long at those short odds.

Here's one I like:

Tale of the Dance

Toss all the turf tries. They mean nothing here. His dirt races fit and he will be an ok price. He is also getting blinkers which should help.

I also like the 3, King Solomon. Races for relatively unknown connections (1 start for the trainer on the meet, 0 for the jockey) but ran well last out in the OBS sprint 50k race. Also using the 7 Tizrobertcharles. He's also dropping from maiden to maiden claimers, comes off a 2 month layoff, gets a bugboy weight break, and should get a perfect trip from that post.

Selections: 3 4 7

Race 4

5F turf sprint for beaten claimers (30k). This race produces another morning line fav that I don't like and this one will def take money considering the connections.

Majestic Number

Why the drop Todd? Why the change from dirt to turf? His pedigree doesn't scream turf to me. Been off for over a year. Will be overbet. PASS.

Have to use the 1/1A entry. The owner likes to win races and puts his horses in spots where they win. Noway I'm letting Frank beat me here.

The 4 is going to be the speed, two back he went 20.4 and 43.2 which is moving. His problem is he doesn't finish, but 3rd off the layoff is a good thing, maybe he has the fitness to get home first today.

I'm also using this horse:

Camp Party

Notice the comment: "Rider stood up early" ....I've looked at a lot of races and that is one you rarely see. You won't have to worry about that with Paco up and this horse will get first run at the speed. I wouldn't be surprised if they ran 1,2 all the way with hopefully this one edging him out since he's a better price.

Selections: 1 4 8

Race 5

This one gets a bit chalky but there isn't much here to use. Using the 4 Backstairs Gossip and the 8 Le Grand Fromage. The 4 gets a weight break with a bugboy up and a trainer change (although the trainer in question doesn't exactly exude confidence). The horse will be forwardly placed and will try for the wire job.

Right behind him (hopefully they don't get into a dual) will be the fav. He should be good enough to ovetake the speed at some point and win but he isn't exactly a standout either. Has never raced 6f before, and is staying at the same level he failed at with 1.10 odds last out. His trainer Linda Rice is also only winning at 7% on the meet.

The problem is the rest of the field is pretty bad. It is the kind of race people might try to go ALL in and hope to catch a price but that isn't how I roll.

Selections: 4 8

$1 Pick 3 ticket:  3 4 7 / 1 4 8 / 4 8 =  $18

Thursday, March 14, 2013

Gulfstream Park 3/15 Early P4

Back at Gulfstream Park this week for the early Pick 4. Would prefer the late action but have to settle with what is available on this site.

Race 2

Statebred maiden race for 42k. Not the best looking bunch of those that have ran already so I'm going to try some firsters and a longshot making a first run on dirt after a bad turf try. The 2 is the ML favorite at 5/2 and is a half to G2 winning Birdrun. Good trainer/jockey, good enough works, dam has 2 winners from 2 starters, would be foolish to leave off.
The 3 is the other firster, shows some zip including one bullet work at Calder in preparation. Only best of 12 that day at 4 furlongs and 48 and 3 at that but hey a bullet is a bullet right. Lures Rosario which is never bad.
Here is the longshot play, click me
Orseno is winning at a 21% clip in 2nd races and 18% turf to dirt. Maybe they were entered in that race last out just to get a race in, who knows. But the horse has showed some speed in the morning, you could do worse off with a 15/1 shot (although I would be surprised if he goes off that high)

Selections: 2 3 4

Race 3

1 mile on the dirt for 30k claimers with a bunch of conditions I don't feel typing out. You can go two ways with this one. You can either trust that Pro d'Oro is going to handle this bunch this time or you have to spread. I say this time because last race he handily beat 4 others in here and the other ones aren't much. Julio Garcia and Ward team up here with one of those horses, they broke slow and never made a run finishing almost 10 lengths back but their backform shows nothing compared to Pro d'Oro. There are some other ones you can dig deep and make a case for but I'm not doing that here. I'll live and die with the chalk.

Selection: 6

Race 4

25k maiden claimers going 6 panels. This is a tough group to decipher. There are 9 horses in here and I think 6 of them could win so I'm using all 6 and hoping for the best. With that being said either the 8 (the chalk) or one of the 3 I left off will sprout wings and fly home first.

Selections: 1 3 6 7 8 9

Race 5

5 furlong turf dash for fillies and mares 4 years old and up. The conditions are OC62500n2x. A quick glance at the bottom of the Brisnet PP says that Early speed horses are winning 55% of the 47 races run this meet at this distance. E/P types at 21%, P types at 15%, and the closers are at a measly 9%.
38% of them were wire jobs. So needless to say you want to be on or near the lead. Here is one that will be forwardly placed and will be a price: Diamond d'Oro
She's moving up in class, which I think is a good thing. Jason Servis isn't doing that PLUS bringing her over from Tampa for shits and giggles. Yes she is probably overmatched but she's at the right price to take a shot and if she runs back to that last race, lookout.
I am going to use 1 other horse that I think will be closer to the pace this time. Here she is: Revenue
3rd start off a layoff, check. Gets blinkers, check.  Gets a rider change (who has won on her before) check. Has Bill Mott as a trainer, check. Has 3 works since last start including a nice fast bullet on March 4th, check. And best of all is 6/1 and will be overlooked. You have a 5/2 fav, a Wesley Ward filly that will take $, Rosario and Plesa Jr. at 3/1, Johnny V and Dale Romans at 4/1. And out of all of them including the rest of the field, Revenue is the only filly or mare to have won more than 1x at the 5f distance.

Selections: 6 8

Pick 4 ticket: 2 3 4 / 6 / 1 3 6 7 8 9 / 6 8 = $18 for $0.50

Last week my single screwed me, hopefully that doesn't happen again.

Thursday, March 7, 2013

I skipped last week due to lazyness.

This week's sequence was going to be the early Pick 4 at Santa Anita on Friday (I invested 2-3 hours looking at it) only to have Mother Nature take a shit on that idea. They were off the turf today and with more rain tonight into tomorrow will no doubt be off the turf again

Thankfully the late Pick 4 at Gulfstream on 3/8 looks playable too so here goes.

Race 7

3 year old maiden fillies going 1 1/8 on the turf. Not exactly my cup of tea when it comes to handicapping. This is your morning line favorite and with Pletcher that is no big surprise: Click me

Pass. She'll get bet because of the connections but doesn't seem like anything special to me. Notice Pletcher is *only winning at 19% with turf starts. I'm thinking she's in the 81% that lose.

Instead I'll use the 6 who finished a nice 2nd last out going a mile, by Pulpit should like the extra 1/8 and her trainer, Anthony Dutrow wins at 24% with his turf starters. I'll also use the 7 just because it is Rosario/Mott at 5/1. Filly did run some decent races at Saratoga last fall. And last but not least the 8 who might/should go off as the fav. You have the best turf jockey out there right now in Lezcano, trainer Chad Brown, and she beat the Pletcher morning line favorite in her only race to date.

Selections: 6 7 8

Race 8

Talk about a wide open race. Because I don't know how to say the conditions without copying word for word here they are: Conditions

There are 9 horses lined up and I think all but one of them can win. I know that leaving one horse out is a big no no but if this horse beats me than so be it. I'm not going to ditch out any more money than I have to because of some stupid superstition. Here's the pig that can beat me: Piggy piggy

(note by calling a horse a pig I'm not being mean, I love all horses, I'm just saying they are slow on the track)

Selections: 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

Race 9 

Here are where things slim down.  Another turf route, 1 1/16 this time for 25k filly and mare claimers. I like the 1 horse and only the 1 horse. Here she is: Singleton

Here is what I like about her: She no doubt needed that last race coming off a layoff. She drops in class. Johnny V stays aboard. She should get a good trip from the rail. She's won twice at the distance. She's the morning line fav but she's 7/2 not 9/5. And most importantly the rest of the field isn't much. The 2 horse did finish in front of her before but that was in September, and the 2 doesn't like to win, she's a hanger, she can beat me.

Selection: 1

Race 10

A cheap claiming race going 7 panels on the dirt to close out the card, great. I'm using 3 of the logical horses and hoping one of them wins. The horse I'll play against is actually the ML favorite at 5/2. Take a look here.

Your classic turf to dirt try, don't blame them after those last two races. They have speed (on the turf against the competition they were racing against) and the distance shouldn't be a problem and they are dropping in class but I don't bet these kinds of horses, they can beat me all day long.

I really like the 1a and if he were to scratch then I might have to rethink things. I'm also using the 2 (Woodbine shipper) and the 3 (stretches out, should be on the lead).

Selections: 1 2 3

Pick 4 ticket: 6 7 8 / 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 / 1 / 1 2 3 = $36 for $0.50

That is about as much as I will spend on a ticket, once in a blue moon I might go as high as $48.

Scratches might knock that down a little, we'll find out tomorrow.