Thursday, March 28, 2013

3/29 - Gulfstream Park Pick 3

I'm giving the P4's a break this week and focusing on a P3 early in the card at Gulfstream.

Race 3

Three years old and up maiden claimers (50k) going 6 furlongs. Let's look at the morning line fav first:

Sense of Peace

Dropping to the claiming ranks off a nice last race in NY. Obviously if he runs back to that race he will be tough. Notice the trainer also owns him so IMO he's asking somebody to take him from him, why? The 4 posted works don't look like much. Kimmel is only winning at 6% on the meet. 10% on these kind of layoffs and a measly 9% from maiden to maiden claiming. Two words for you: NO THANKS. I'll let this horse beat me all day long at those short odds.

Here's one I like:

Tale of the Dance

Toss all the turf tries. They mean nothing here. His dirt races fit and he will be an ok price. He is also getting blinkers which should help.

I also like the 3, King Solomon. Races for relatively unknown connections (1 start for the trainer on the meet, 0 for the jockey) but ran well last out in the OBS sprint 50k race. Also using the 7 Tizrobertcharles. He's also dropping from maiden to maiden claimers, comes off a 2 month layoff, gets a bugboy weight break, and should get a perfect trip from that post.

Selections: 3 4 7

Race 4

5F turf sprint for beaten claimers (30k). This race produces another morning line fav that I don't like and this one will def take money considering the connections.

Majestic Number

Why the drop Todd? Why the change from dirt to turf? His pedigree doesn't scream turf to me. Been off for over a year. Will be overbet. PASS.

Have to use the 1/1A entry. The owner likes to win races and puts his horses in spots where they win. Noway I'm letting Frank beat me here.

The 4 is going to be the speed, two back he went 20.4 and 43.2 which is moving. His problem is he doesn't finish, but 3rd off the layoff is a good thing, maybe he has the fitness to get home first today.

I'm also using this horse:

Camp Party

Notice the comment: "Rider stood up early" ....I've looked at a lot of races and that is one you rarely see. You won't have to worry about that with Paco up and this horse will get first run at the speed. I wouldn't be surprised if they ran 1,2 all the way with hopefully this one edging him out since he's a better price.

Selections: 1 4 8

Race 5

This one gets a bit chalky but there isn't much here to use. Using the 4 Backstairs Gossip and the 8 Le Grand Fromage. The 4 gets a weight break with a bugboy up and a trainer change (although the trainer in question doesn't exactly exude confidence). The horse will be forwardly placed and will try for the wire job.

Right behind him (hopefully they don't get into a dual) will be the fav. He should be good enough to ovetake the speed at some point and win but he isn't exactly a standout either. Has never raced 6f before, and is staying at the same level he failed at with 1.10 odds last out. His trainer Linda Rice is also only winning at 7% on the meet.

The problem is the rest of the field is pretty bad. It is the kind of race people might try to go ALL in and hope to catch a price but that isn't how I roll.

Selections: 4 8

$1 Pick 3 ticket:  3 4 7 / 1 4 8 / 4 8 =  $18

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