Thursday, March 14, 2013

Gulfstream Park 3/15 Early P4

Back at Gulfstream Park this week for the early Pick 4. Would prefer the late action but have to settle with what is available on this site.

Race 2

Statebred maiden race for 42k. Not the best looking bunch of those that have ran already so I'm going to try some firsters and a longshot making a first run on dirt after a bad turf try. The 2 is the ML favorite at 5/2 and is a half to G2 winning Birdrun. Good trainer/jockey, good enough works, dam has 2 winners from 2 starters, would be foolish to leave off.
The 3 is the other firster, shows some zip including one bullet work at Calder in preparation. Only best of 12 that day at 4 furlongs and 48 and 3 at that but hey a bullet is a bullet right. Lures Rosario which is never bad.
Here is the longshot play, click me
Orseno is winning at a 21% clip in 2nd races and 18% turf to dirt. Maybe they were entered in that race last out just to get a race in, who knows. But the horse has showed some speed in the morning, you could do worse off with a 15/1 shot (although I would be surprised if he goes off that high)

Selections: 2 3 4

Race 3

1 mile on the dirt for 30k claimers with a bunch of conditions I don't feel typing out. You can go two ways with this one. You can either trust that Pro d'Oro is going to handle this bunch this time or you have to spread. I say this time because last race he handily beat 4 others in here and the other ones aren't much. Julio Garcia and Ward team up here with one of those horses, they broke slow and never made a run finishing almost 10 lengths back but their backform shows nothing compared to Pro d'Oro. There are some other ones you can dig deep and make a case for but I'm not doing that here. I'll live and die with the chalk.

Selection: 6

Race 4

25k maiden claimers going 6 panels. This is a tough group to decipher. There are 9 horses in here and I think 6 of them could win so I'm using all 6 and hoping for the best. With that being said either the 8 (the chalk) or one of the 3 I left off will sprout wings and fly home first.

Selections: 1 3 6 7 8 9

Race 5

5 furlong turf dash for fillies and mares 4 years old and up. The conditions are OC62500n2x. A quick glance at the bottom of the Brisnet PP says that Early speed horses are winning 55% of the 47 races run this meet at this distance. E/P types at 21%, P types at 15%, and the closers are at a measly 9%.
38% of them were wire jobs. So needless to say you want to be on or near the lead. Here is one that will be forwardly placed and will be a price: Diamond d'Oro
She's moving up in class, which I think is a good thing. Jason Servis isn't doing that PLUS bringing her over from Tampa for shits and giggles. Yes she is probably overmatched but she's at the right price to take a shot and if she runs back to that last race, lookout.
I am going to use 1 other horse that I think will be closer to the pace this time. Here she is: Revenue
3rd start off a layoff, check. Gets blinkers, check.  Gets a rider change (who has won on her before) check. Has Bill Mott as a trainer, check. Has 3 works since last start including a nice fast bullet on March 4th, check. And best of all is 6/1 and will be overlooked. You have a 5/2 fav, a Wesley Ward filly that will take $, Rosario and Plesa Jr. at 3/1, Johnny V and Dale Romans at 4/1. And out of all of them including the rest of the field, Revenue is the only filly or mare to have won more than 1x at the 5f distance.

Selections: 6 8

Pick 4 ticket: 2 3 4 / 6 / 1 3 6 7 8 9 / 6 8 = $18 for $0.50

Last week my single screwed me, hopefully that doesn't happen again.

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