Thursday, March 7, 2013

I skipped last week due to lazyness.

This week's sequence was going to be the early Pick 4 at Santa Anita on Friday (I invested 2-3 hours looking at it) only to have Mother Nature take a shit on that idea. They were off the turf today and with more rain tonight into tomorrow will no doubt be off the turf again

Thankfully the late Pick 4 at Gulfstream on 3/8 looks playable too so here goes.

Race 7

3 year old maiden fillies going 1 1/8 on the turf. Not exactly my cup of tea when it comes to handicapping. This is your morning line favorite and with Pletcher that is no big surprise: Click me

Pass. She'll get bet because of the connections but doesn't seem like anything special to me. Notice Pletcher is *only winning at 19% with turf starts. I'm thinking she's in the 81% that lose.

Instead I'll use the 6 who finished a nice 2nd last out going a mile, by Pulpit should like the extra 1/8 and her trainer, Anthony Dutrow wins at 24% with his turf starters. I'll also use the 7 just because it is Rosario/Mott at 5/1. Filly did run some decent races at Saratoga last fall. And last but not least the 8 who might/should go off as the fav. You have the best turf jockey out there right now in Lezcano, trainer Chad Brown, and she beat the Pletcher morning line favorite in her only race to date.

Selections: 6 7 8

Race 8

Talk about a wide open race. Because I don't know how to say the conditions without copying word for word here they are: Conditions

There are 9 horses lined up and I think all but one of them can win. I know that leaving one horse out is a big no no but if this horse beats me than so be it. I'm not going to ditch out any more money than I have to because of some stupid superstition. Here's the pig that can beat me: Piggy piggy

(note by calling a horse a pig I'm not being mean, I love all horses, I'm just saying they are slow on the track)

Selections: 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

Race 9 

Here are where things slim down.  Another turf route, 1 1/16 this time for 25k filly and mare claimers. I like the 1 horse and only the 1 horse. Here she is: Singleton

Here is what I like about her: She no doubt needed that last race coming off a layoff. She drops in class. Johnny V stays aboard. She should get a good trip from the rail. She's won twice at the distance. She's the morning line fav but she's 7/2 not 9/5. And most importantly the rest of the field isn't much. The 2 horse did finish in front of her before but that was in September, and the 2 doesn't like to win, she's a hanger, she can beat me.

Selection: 1

Race 10

A cheap claiming race going 7 panels on the dirt to close out the card, great. I'm using 3 of the logical horses and hoping one of them wins. The horse I'll play against is actually the ML favorite at 5/2. Take a look here.

Your classic turf to dirt try, don't blame them after those last two races. They have speed (on the turf against the competition they were racing against) and the distance shouldn't be a problem and they are dropping in class but I don't bet these kinds of horses, they can beat me all day long.

I really like the 1a and if he were to scratch then I might have to rethink things. I'm also using the 2 (Woodbine shipper) and the 3 (stretches out, should be on the lead).

Selections: 1 2 3

Pick 4 ticket: 6 7 8 / 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 / 1 / 1 2 3 = $36 for $0.50

That is about as much as I will spend on a ticket, once in a blue moon I might go as high as $48.

Scratches might knock that down a little, we'll find out tomorrow. 

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